The Danger of Taking Data at Face Value

Published On:

July 2, 2026

The Danger of Taking Data at Face Value

Project managers, one of the most important skills to hold, is the ability to apply critical judgement and to discern information presented to you.

We as leaders take information from various sources and are encouraged to reserve the want or need to draw our own conclusions.

This is important to practice through common project activities such as:

Workshops to understand the current state of a business process or architecture.
Seeking feedback on how the project is going from key decision-making stakeholders.
Taking a pulse on team morale by talking to individual members.
Ad hoc notifications through chat, text or face to face (including the destructive rumor mill).

The Project Context

Those who have been in the project management profession long enough can note that information that is presented to you may not be the full story and may require some deeper understanding of information and validation of the source.

The interesting thing to note is that this is second nature to us in a project setting; however, we do not apply this same type of skepticism when we are dealing with research data.

The Trap

How often do we find posts, presentations or even in casual conversation that refer to specific statistics or research?

Phrases such as:

“According to, from an X review, from a recent study conducted by.”

We are not so quick to challenge or question the validity of statements made. We even accept the conclusions drawn from the mere sentence.

This can be attributed to a cognitive trap called authority bias.

It is defined as a tendency to overvalue opinions, findings, or directives from perceived experts’ authority figures regardless of the actual evidence or lack thereof.

Expert authority being individuals or entities such as influencers or celebrities, educators, field experts or professionals, leaders or those with high ranking.

The question is, why does this matter to the study and practice of project management?

The False Pattern

Well take this made-up statistic for example:

“According to a recent Harvard study, 70% of projects will be run by AI in 2030”

Immediately your eyes scan and see the prestigious name Harvard, and a prediction AI will be taking project work away.

At this point, some project professionals are NOT going to delve any further into the statistics or the study and start to take actions based on it. They have fallen to the authority bias of Harvard and their study.

This leads with immediate takeaways such as:

I need to learn AI.
I also need to do it quickly to remain competitive or I might lose my job.

The problem is we as professionals are not even trying to determine the validity of the study but take it as a forgone conclusion.

Applying Due Diligence to What you Read

To take the same skepticism we exhibited before when working with other people on projects, we need to examine a few facets of the study.

This can be simplified into three main buckets (for this article)

The source
The beneficiary
The methodology

The Source

When we look at the source of the study behind statistics or study, we should be asking at a high level if there is a conflict of interest and is the conductor or patron of the study reputable?

Ask the following questions:

Who conducted the research/study?
- Are they public or private entities?
- Have they been in this field related to the topic for a long time or are they new entrants?
- Do they have any other studies that are adjacent to this one?
- Was the study reviewed by a reputable third-party source?

Who funded the study?
- Is the patron a research organization, a governmental body or a private institution?
- Is the patron for the research easy to find or is obscured? Ie. Parent or holding companies.

The Beneficiary

Now that we look at the source of a study, let’s look at the benefits from it. Here we are looking at bias and again conflicts of interest.

Some questions and sub questions include:

What are the monetary and intrinsic gains from the conclusion of the study?
- Is the study pushing a conclusion that drives towards a single business or a service or product?
- Are there other incentives besides financial, such as social, and political?

Who benefits from the conclusion?
- Who benefits from the conclusions of the research?
- Who doesn’t benefit from the conclusions of the research?

The Methodology

After understanding who originators of the study are and who could benefit from its conclusions, we have one more element to discuss. The approach.

Here are some elements to consider:

Variables
- Is there a control group?
- Are the other variables defined and measurable?

Sample size
- If the study data has enough input to be statistically significant or represent the population it is trying to make conclusions about?
- Does it represent more than one subgroup?

Data
- How long was the study conducted for?
- Was the information voluntary, paid or through some other criteria?
- How was the data handled?
- Were outliers dismissed?
- Was the data normalized?
- Are there leaps in causality?

Add Discernment to Every Facet

The key element is to understand that there are multiple layers, contexts and agendas behind a particular study. When understanding and piecing these to the bigger picture. The validity, the accuracy and the importance of the study may or may not change.

Now is this article telling you to arbitrarily deny or not accept published studies in the future?

No,

But as a project professional of 15+ years managing complex projects up to over $650M; I ask that you take that same skepticism from someone describing a situation to you on a project and apply it to broader research and statistics in your profession and lives.

There is more to the story, and your critical thinking skills will be the differentiator in a highly automated world.

PML would like to extend a huge thank you to Justin J. MacBale for sharing his knowledge and wisdom with the PML community!
Learn more about him below and reach out to connect!

About the Author

Justin J. MacBale is a project and program management leader with more than 17 years of experience delivering complex initiatives across manufacturing, consumer packaged goods (CPG), software, and technology organizations. He holds an MBA from Southern Methodist University with concentrations in Business Analytics and Corporate Strategy.

Recognized by Marquis Who’s Who as an industry leader and featured in Business Insider for his perspectives on business advocacy driven project management, Justin has built a reputation for leading high-impact transformations and recovering at-risk initiatives. Known among clients as “The Closer,” he has successfully guided distressed projects valued at up to $650 million to completion while rebuilding stakeholder confidence and strengthening alignment between business and delivery teams.

Justin is the founder of Pragintion PM (Pragmatic + Intentional), a project management consultancy focused on practical delivery excellence, leadership coaching, and organizational effectiveness. He is also the co-founder of PM Career Growth, a learning platform dedicated to helping project management professionals become visible, trusted business advocates and strategic leaders.

Reach out to Justin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinjmacbale/

Or visit his website at: https://www.pragintionpm.com/

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